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Research Note

Strong M&A Activity Cushions Greenfield Drop: Q4 2025 Update

Feb 04, 2026 Danielle Goh, Armand Meyer, Thilo Hanemann

The momentum of Chinese outbound FDI dropped in Q4 2025, with only $19.2 billion in newly announced transactions. Greenfield investment led the slowdown, with only a single new billion-dollar project announced. On the flip side, M&A activity cushioned the drop in greenfield FDI with one of the strongest quarters since 2020 as Chinese companies picked up assets in mining and consumer goods. Despite a weak Q4, the value of Chinese overseas FDI transactions hit a post-pandemic record of $124 billion in 2025.

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Investment momentum

New data from the China Cross-Border Monitor (CBM) shows that mainland Chinese companies announced 111 major FDI transactions in Q4 2025 totaling an estimated $19.2 billion. 

Greenfield investment totaled $10.9 billion and accounted for 55% of total investment. Only one transaction over $1 billion was recorded this quarter, compared to a quarterly average of seven since 2024. The largest transaction was China National Petroleum Corporation’s $1.44 billion investment in the Coral North floating LNG project in Mozambique, where it holds a 20% stake alongside Eni, Kogas, ENH, and ADNOC.

New M&A transactions by Chinese firms totaled $8.3 billion, marking the highest quarterly value since Q4 2020. Interest in consumer brands and mining assets drove this rebound. The largest transaction was HongShan Capital Group’s estimated $1.5 billion acquisition of Italian luxury footwear brand Golden Goose, followed by Jiangxi Copper’s $1.17 billion acquisition of SolGold’s Cascabel copper mine in Ecuador.

The fourth quarter saw several notable transaction status updates. In the United States, Green New Energy Materials, a Chinese-owned battery materials producer, brought its $140 million battery separator manufacturing facility in North Carolina into production ahead of its scheduled launch in early Q1 2026. In Mexico, automotive interior supplier Wuhu Foresight Technology inaugurated a $50 million production facility in Aguascalientes, marking its third manufacturing site in the country and further expanding its footprint in the North American automotive supply chain.

In North Africa, Shandong Yongsheng Rubber’s $675 million tire manufacturing plant in Morocco’s Kenitra Automotive City commenced construction, with initial capacity expected to reach 6 million semi-steel radial tires annually. Also in Morocco, Chinese group Sunrise, through its subsidiary Euwen Textiles, began construction of a $154 million textile factory in Fez’s Bensouda Industrial Zone, part of a broader $252 million investment program in the country’s textile sector. In Egypt, China’s Deli Group broke ground on a $200 million industrial complex in Tenth of Ramadan City and has already begun limited local production from a leased facility. 

In Latin America, Geely formally acquired a 26.4% stake in Renault do Brasil, with Renault Group retaining majority ownership and operational control. In the digital and entertainment sector, Tencent completed its $1.25 billion acquisition of a 25% stake in Vantage Studios, a new Ubisoft subsidiary managing major game franchises including Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry, and Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six.

In Guinea, a commissioning ceremony was held for the Simandou iron ore project, where Chinese companies contributed an estimated $7 billion to the development of integrated mine, rail, and port infrastructure. 

Several troubled Chinese investments were recorded in the fourth quarter, largely due to regulatory intervention and political scrutiny. In the United States, President Trump issued an executive order on January 2, 2026, requiring HieFo Corporation to divest semiconductor manufacturing assets it acquired from EMCORE in September 2024, following a CFIUS review. A subsidiary of Chinese battery maker Gotion abandoned plans to build a $2.4 billion battery materials plant in Michigan amid sustained political opposition to the project. China-founded networking equipment maker TP-Link sought to reassure US national security officials of its independence from Beijing following the restructuring of its US and China operations, though scrutiny persists over its Vietnam-based manufacturing supplying the US market. In Mexico, BYD signaled renewed uncertainty over plans to establish local manufacturing capacity, citing ongoing negotiations with authorities over electric vehicle tariffs that could reach up to 50%. 

In Europe, Chinese-owned semiconductor firm Nexperia faced intensified scrutiny in the Netherlands, with regulatory intervention constraining operations at its Nijmegen semiconductor facility over national security concerns. WuXi Biologics also divested its drug manufacturing facility in Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia region for $240 million, continuing its withdrawal from Europe following the sale of its Irish assets in 2022. Meanwhile, Chinese-owned mining firm MMG’s $500 million acquisition of Anglo American’s Brazilian nickel business was subjected to an in-depth European Union competition probe, after regulators warned the deal could threaten reliable access to ferro-nickel supplies critical to the bloc’s stainless steel industry. In the energy sector, Italy’s Snam S.p.A., which is 10.5% owned by State Grid Corporation of China, withdrew its $1.1 billion bid to acquire a 24.99% stake in Germany’s Open Grid Europe amid regulatory pushback. In Italy as well, Pirelli has reportedly been in discussions with its largest shareholder, Sinochem, about reducing its stake to around 10% to alleviate concerns over access to the US market.

Investment by sector

The top sectors for Chinese outbound investment in Q4 2025 were basic materials, consumer products, and energy (Figure 2). 

With announced investment of $6.0 billion, the basic materials sector ranked as the top destination for Chinese capital in Q4, despite a slowdown from the previous quarter. Activity was dominated by large-scale mining acquisitions and several greenfield projects. The largest transaction was Jiangxi Copper’s $1.17 billion acquisition of SolGold’s Cascabel copper mine in Ecuador, one of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits. In Brazil, CMOC advanced a $1.02 billion acquisition of the Aurizona, RDM, and Bahia gold assets, while MMG announced plans for a $900 million greenfield expansion of the Khoemacau copper mine project in Botswana. In Egypt, Xinfengming Holding Group committed $800 million to a polyester fiber and polymer plant in the TEDA Industrial Zone, and in Nigeria, Stellar Steel announced a $400 million integrated steel plant in Ogun State. 

The consumer products and services sector ranked second, attracting $2.8 billion in total Chinese investment, driven primarily by a small number of high-value acquisitions alongside continued greenfield manufacturing activity. The largest transaction was HongShan Capital Group’s estimated $1.5 billion pending acquisition of Italian luxury footwear brand Golden Goose. In the United States, Shenzhen PICEA Robotics announced a $352 million acquisition of iRobot following the company’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing, expanding Chinese exposure to consumer robotics and smart home technologies. Chinese companies also advanced several manufacturing projects in emerging markets. In Egypt, Tongling Jieya Biologic committed $160 million to a sanitary products plant in the TEDA Industrial Zone, while Fountain Set and Zhejiang Jiansheng each announced $100 million investments in textile and sportswear manufacturing complexes in the Suez Canal Economic Zone. In Southeast Asia, Deli Group announced and commenced construction of a $135 million stationery and office supplies manufacturing facility in Karawang, Indonesia.

The energy sector ranked third in Q4, attracting $3.3 billion in total Chinese investment. The largest transaction was China National Petroleum Corporation’s $1.44 billion greenfield investment in the Coral North floating LNG project in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province, extending Chinese participation in offshore gas development. In North Africa, CSG Holding committed $247 million to a photovoltaic glass manufacturing facility in Egypt. Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Equipment announced a $196 million electrolyzer manufacturing plant in Thuringia, Germany, while China Huadian moved forward with a $147 million greenfield investment in the Aktau Energy Company in Kazakhstan.

Investment by geography

Asia was the top destination of Chinese capital in Q4, followed by Africa and Latin America (Figure 3). 

Asia ranked first in Q4, attracting $4.5 billion in new Chinese investment, the lowest quarterly total since Q1 2024. ASEAN economies accounted for $1.48 billion, or 33% of regional investment. In Southeast Asia, Prinx Chengshan announced and commenced construction of a $627 million tire manufacturing plant in Kedah, Malaysia, marking one of the quarter’s largest greenfield manufacturing commitments in the region. In Singapore, Elegant Group announced a $625 million planned acquisition of the Clementi Mall and in Thailand, Dynamic Electronics advanced plans for a $211 million artificial intelligence (AI)-focused printed circuit board manufacturing facility in Prachinburi province. Outside ASEAN, investment activity was more limited and concentrated in financial and real estate assets in Hong Kong, including Alibaba Group and Ant Group’s $925 million pending acquisition of prime office floors at Mandarin Oriental One Causeway Bay.

Africa ranked second in Q4, attracting $4.0 billion in new Chinese investment. Activity was driven by large-scale energy and mining projects. In Mozambique, China National Petroleum Corporation announced a $1.44 billion greenfield investment in the Coral North floating LNG project in Cabo Delgado, extending Chinese participation in offshore gas development. In southern Africa, MMG advanced plans for a $900 million expansion of the Khoemacau copper mine project in Botswana. Kenya also featured prominently this quarter, with Kaishan Group commencing construction of an $800 million green ammonia plant in Nakuru.

Latin America ranked third in Q4, attracting $3.4 billion in new Chinese investment, driven by acquisitions in the mining sector. In Ecuador, Jiangxi Copper announced a $1.17 billion pending acquisition of SolGold’s Cascabel copper mine, one of the region’s largest copper development projects. Brazil also featured prominently, with CMOC advancing a $1.02 billion acquisition of the Aurizona, RDM, and Bahia gold assets, consolidating its position in South America’s gold sector. Outside mining, China Southern Power Grid committed $493 million to the Kimal–Lo Aguirre transmission line project in Chile, highlighting continued Chinese participation in regional power infrastructure.